Trump’s executive orders on global trade are getting very mixed reactions — depending on what’s being farmed.
In the span of one week, President Donald Trump upset the apple cart of international agricultural trade with our three closest trading partners, Canada, Mexico, and China.
Using executive orders, Trump rolled out 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico while upping tariffs on goods from China and Hong Kong from 10 to 20%. Then, after a conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump announced a delay of the 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico until April 2, when he plans to retaliate against any country that imposes tariffs on the U.S.
Canada and China wasted no time in responding with tariffs of their own. Canada added 25% tariffs on U.S. goods; China, 10% or 15%; and Mexico delayed, given the delay by Trump.
But the temporary reprieve in North America is not applied evenly to all goods: Only products that meet the criteria of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement of 2020 (USMCA) will have another few weeks of no taxes applied at the border. (It’s possible that things have changed again by the time you read this.)
The new tariffs are poised to fall heavily on the American agriculture industry — but not evenly across all sectors. The retaliatory tariffs from China on U.S. goods are deeply concerning to the export-heavy soybean industry. Others, like beef and cattle, whose domestic market competes against cheaper meat from South America, want more tariffs imposed on U.S. imports. And all farmers reliant on fertilizer are waiting to see if prices will surge as they restock their supply for the fall planting season.
The scope of the new tariffs “is something that we haven’t seen in almost a century,” said David Ortega, food economist and professor at Michigan State University. And it’s no surprise that China’s tariffs focused on U.S. agriculture products, he said. “They know the importance of the export market to our farmers.”
The last trade war between the U.S. and China, from 2018 to 2020, led to “some pretty significant consequences to the agricultural sector,” Ortega said. Back then, Trump paid farmers to tide them over from the lost revenue, and experts expect he will try the same thing again.
Let’s take a look at what the major agricultural trade organizations are saying in response to the tariffs.
Soybeans
Soybeans are the top export crop for the U.S, over a quarter of it heading to China. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the American Soybean Association has come out strongly against the tariffs.
The constantly shifting news of the tariffs have left the soybean industry “almost numb to it,” American Soybean Association president Caleb Ragland told Ambrook Research.
While the delay on tariffs on Canada and Mexico is commendable, Ragland said, it’s the retaliatory 10% tariff from China that worries soybean producers. Trump has said that any retaliatory tariffs will be met with reciprocal tariffs on imports to the U.S. starting on April 2.
Memories of the last trade war with China initiated by Trump in 2018 are still present for American soybean farmers of today, Ragland said. The two countries added more and more tariffs until calling a truce in early 2020. China’s retaliatory tariffs essentially halted soybean exports from the U.S. overnight. The U.S. lost $27 billion of ag sales to China back then, over 70% of which was from soybeans, Ragland said.
The industry has only regained around three-quarters of what it lost, he said. “We may never gain back everything we lost with China.“
“The President was elected by rural America, and these folks far and wide have put a lot of confidence in him. And we need him to have our backs right now. He said he loves farmers and I believe he does. We need to put the rubber to the road here and not do something that sets us back for a generation.”
Unlike the start of the last trade war, the American farming industry is already in a bad spot, Ragland said.
“Markets are low. Production costs have crept up over the last several years. We’re already on the verge of a farm crisis, high interest rates, just a combination of everything. Then you add a trade war with multiple countries at the same time, that further erodes demand for our products, which we have to have those export markets — there’s no if ands or buts about it. You combine all that together, and you’re putting American soybean farmer — and the American farmer, in general — we’re being backed into a corner. This is a bad, bad situation,” Ragland said.
“The free market always wins long-term,” Ragland added. “You can study economics, you can look at history, and you don’t win with protectionist policies that end up swinging punches at each other and just taxing yourself to death through a trade war with tariffs.”
Fertilizers
The U.S. imports more than it exports when it comes to fertilizers, according to USDA’s trade data monitor. The major players in the industry — China, Canada, and Russia — have natural deposits of the key fertilizer ingredients, potassium (aka potash) and phosphorus. But the U.S. still produces around 10% of the world’s fertilizer. The Fertilizer Institute (TFI), which represents fertilizer wholesalers, retailers, and producers, asked Trump for a specific carve-out of Canadian potash from the new 25% tariffs. It got what it wished for, and then some.
Potash from Canada and Mexico that do not meet USMCA criteria will have a lower 10% tariff, Trump said in a specific callout during the second round of executive orders. That is in addition to the relief from the 25% tariff on fertilizers that meet USMCA rules.
“The fact that you had automobiles, oil and gas, and fertilizer all at the top of the discussion was really significant for our industry,” president and CEO of TFI Corey Rosenbusch told Ambrook Research. “We were all very excited.”
But the game could change entirely on April 2, Rosenbusch said, when Trump said he will impose reciprocal tariffs on any country that puts a tariff on U.S. goods. Some are worried he will backtrack on the 10% potash promise.
Until then, fertilizer producers are scratching their heads to make sure their products meet USMCA standards, Rosenbusch said. June is the next key month for the industry, when farmers begin filling their sheds for fertilizer needed for fall application.
Dairy
A decade ago, the U.S. imported more dairy products than it exported, according to the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA). But in 2024, the U.S. exported over $8 billion of daily products, 40% of which headed to Canada or Mexico. China, too, has begun to import more U.S. dairy products over the last few years.
So it’s not surprising that the IDFA asked Trump to work out the tariffs situation as soon as possible: Canada’s and China’s retaliatory tariffs include dairy products.
Another tariff came up in the Oval Office on March 6 when Trump mentioned a tax of 250% that Canada puts on U.S. milk. But that 250% tax has never been applied to dairy products sent from the U.S. to Canada, wrote IDFA’s Becky Rasdall Vargas, senior vice president of trade and workforce policy, in a statement.
IDFA balanced gratitude to Trump for holding Canada accountable for “these protectionist measures” with concern for a drawn out trade war that “will continue to create uncertainty and additional costs for American dairy farmers, processors, and our rural communities,” Rasdall Vargas wrote.
Corn
The National Corn Growers Association initially asked President Trump to “quickly negotiate agreements with Mexico, Canada, and China that will benefit American farmers while addressing issues important to the United States.”
After the second set of executive orders, CEO Neil Caskey said on a podcast hosted by the group that the tariffs with major trading partners “put us a little on edge when you think about just the state of the farm economy right now — you know, that has us nervous.”
Around 15% of corn is exported, Caskey said, much of it heading to Mexico. Ethanol is sent up north to Canada. As farmers are poised to plant corn for the year, Caskey said many are nervous about having markets to sell to. “We, like all of agriculture, we are an export-dependent industry,” he said.
But Trump’s focus on domestic markets might come in handy as NCGA supports a bill that removes a federal policy preventing the sale of fuel blended with 15% ethanol during summer months. “We cannot be the dominant energy player that I know this administration wants us to be without ethanol,” Caskey said.
Cattle/Beef
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association has not put out an official statement about the tariffs. And the U.S. Meat Export Federation, unsurprisingly, was disappointed that a non-tariff trade resolution failed to materialize.
But praise for the tariffs came from the influential Ranchers Cattlemen Action Legal Fund (R-CALF). The group has long called for tariffs — and wants even more countries added to the tariff list, said CEO Bill Bullard.
The cattle industry has shrunk “at an alarming rate” over the past few decades, Bullard said to Ambrook Research. Imports seem to flood into the U.S. every time cattle prices reach a level that would allow the domestic industry to grow, he added.
A 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico is “a very important first step in re-establishing tariffs as a legitimate economic tool,” Bullard said. Ideally, tariffs would also be applied to Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, and Brazil who he said “inundate” the U.S. market with imported beef. In addition to tariffs, Bullard said country of origin labeling for beef sold in the U.S. should also be implemented as it is “part and parcel with the tariff issue.”
But others in the cattle industry might balk at the tariffs, said Jill Hobbs, professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of Saskatchewan — specifically, those who import feeder cattle from Canada to be fattened up in the U.S.
Seeds
The U.S. exported $1.7 billion in crop seeds in 2024, much of it heading to Canada, Mexico, China, and Europe. It’s little wonder that the American Seed Trade Association has consistently come out against tariffs and other barriers to international trade over the years.
On March 4, ASTA CEO and president Andy LaVigne wrote in a statement that the new tariffs and retaliatory tariffs “introduce significant uncertainty that will negatively impact those who help grow the food, feed, fiber, and fuel for millions of American families.”
Seed research and development is an international business, LaVigne wrote. Plant breeders test drive new seed varieties around the world before perfecting the products that are sold to farmers. The U.S. and China have a particularly complicated relationship when it comes to seed production. The intellectual property of seeds coming from China to the U.S. are often owned by U.S. companies, according to the ASTA.
It’s hard to quickly shift these R&D pipelines, LaVigne wrote, so plant breeders will have to shoulder the new costs of international trade before passing the costs down to farmers.
Rice
The trade group USA Rice welcomed the tariffs in a statement to Ambrook Research titled, “It’s Tariff Time,” by CEO Peter Bachmann. The U.S. exports half of its rice each year, but rice imports to the U.S. from other countries have doubled in the last decade, Bachmann wrote.
While Bachmann acknowledged that tariffs can be a double-edged sword, he called on Trump to “come to the defense of our farmers through targeted, product-specific reciprocal tariffs against bad actors.”
These bad actors include China, India, Thailand, and Vietnam, whose governments subsidize the rice that later floods the world trade market.
Right now, only China is facing tariffs. But Trump promised reciprocal tariffs on any countries that impose tariffs on the U.S. starting on April 2. He specifically named China and India, calling out the latter for being “a very high tariff nation.”
Pork
The National Pork Producers Council has not put out a statement about the tariffs. But the group has highlighted how important global trade is to the pork industry, noting that pork exports reached an all-time high in 2024, the result of a two-decade-long upward trend. China is the largest importer of U.S. pork, followed by Mexico. Canada, China, and Mexico together received over 50% of U.S. pork exports in 2024, according to NPPC.
Chinese company WH Group bought a prime slice of the U.S. pork industry when in 2013 it took over Smithfield Foods, the largest American pork producer. Smithfield president and CEO Shane Smith addressed the tariffs at the Bank of America Consumer and Retail Conference on March 12, reported by Supermarket Perimeter. While retaliatory tariffs in China are a concern for the meat industry as a whole, including Smithfield, they’re not new, Smith said. The industry has operated under tariffs since 2018 when the first trade war started — and China is still the best place to sell offal products such as stomachs or ears that most Americans do not eat.
It’s still unclear how trade will be impacted by the new tariffs, Smith said. “What is it going to mean to exchange rates; what is it going to mean, for example, if meat is tariffed going in and corn is also tariffed going in, what does that mean to the underlying raising costs,” he said.
NPPC CEO Bryan Humphreys wrote on the organization website that it was “actively engaged to ensure government actions minimize damage” to producers. The group’s president Lori Stevermer went further during meetings at the Capitol the week before the tariffs were announced, saying that “the United States needs more comprehensive trade agreements that eliminate or significantly reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers to U.S. exports.”
Farm Equipment
The farm equipment industry relies on a global network of trade for parts. And any disruption, including tariffs, on “those tightly connected supply chains” will have “a serious impact on equipment manufacturers and on our farmers,” said Johan “Kip” Eideberg of Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) to Farm Journal.
Many U.S. farmers use farm equipment made in countries across North America and Europe, according to a breakdown of data by Farm Journal. A third of equipment made in the U.S. is exported, much of it going north to Canada.
While the trade group did not put out a statement explicitly about the tariffs, their latest data on sales in February noted that the continued decline “reflect current market challenges, including global trade concerns and tariffs,” AEM senior vice president Curt Blades wrote in a statement on the data.
Over the last few years, farm equipment inventory has dropped following a shortage in steel. Farmers had to wait months or even a year for new equipment — a delay most cannot afford to have. Now, China has imposed a 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. agricultural equipment in addition to the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum that was already in place. The new tariffs arrive as sales of new farming equipment are dropping and used equipment prices are rising due to inflation.
Farm equipment manufacturer margins are tight, which means that the costs of tariffs will be passed from equipment dealers on to farmers, wrote Eric Wareham of the North American Equipment Dealers Association to Farm Progress in February. NAEDA includes the agriculture equipment industry. “There’s a wait-and-see approach right now. Uncertainty has been injected into the market,” Wareham said.
